I'm not in the Bill-Gates-is-the-Antichrist crowd, but I think the current situation is interesting. Consider this:

• Microsoft owns the desktops and servers in most businesses
• Most businesses are still running Windows XP.  It was ok 10 years ago but stinks in 2011
• Microsoft completely owns office productivity software - the only competition is from Sun's give-away Open Office
• Microsoft still owns a majority of home computer sales
• New home computer sales is all Windows 7, a significant upgrade from the previous version and, imho, a really good operating system
• Sooner or later, there will be enough motivation to move office users from XP to Windows 7, or whatever is in place at the time.
• They've lost the war on phones and music players
• But they're definitely in the running with gamers
• They have a gargantuan R&D budget which seems mostly focused on ideas somewhat over the horizon.

And yet anyone who's trendy at all is virtualy required to prefer Apple, and generally distain Microsoft. I think that Apple essentially owns design.

I think M$ is possibly better set for 2020 than they are for 2012. I'd still buy their stock though.